October Binary Biotech Catalysts
−13.8%
since Sep 19
The idea
I'm betting on binary biotech catalysts hitting before the end of October, so I built a basket of my ten highest-conviction FDA decisions and pivotal readouts, US names at the core with Japan and Europe exposure through liquid ADRs, plus a few smaller reserves as backups. Every position is a coin flip, so each is sized small enough that one failure won't sink the basket, and I'm planning to sell the whole thing down by month's end regardless of outcomes. I'm holding 15% cash since readout dates slip often, and anything that pushes past October gets sold rather than held through.
What it owns
- Late-stage trial results landing before November can rerate a stock in a day if the primary endpoints hit. · BridgeBio PharmaIt is testing a treatment in a rare endocrine disease and expects to report pivotal trial results this month., Intellia TherapeuticsIt has a pivotal readout due by end of October for its gene editing treatment in hereditary angioedema., Structure TherapeuticsIt reads out data on its oral obesity pill in October, where weight loss numbers and tolerability against injectable competitors decide the outcome., Acadia PharmaceuticalsIt is evaluating a candidate for Prader-Willi syndrome and has pivotal data readout scheduled for this month., Wave Life SciencesIt reads out clinical data on its RNA editing approach in a lung disease this October as an early proof point for the whole platform., Arcus BiosciencesIt is studying a gastric cancer therapy with pivotal survival data expected to be reported this month., Ideaya BiosciencesIt reports an interim look at its eye melanoma trial in October, where positive interim data keeps the program on track.37%
- FDA yes-or-no decisions on known dates are clean binaries, with the outcome fully binary and the timing set in advance. · Cogent BiosciencesIt awaits an FDA decision by end of October on a mast cell disease drug, with the approval timing and odds the core variables., Protagonist TherapeuticsIt expects an FDA approval decision before end of October for its oral psoriasis drug partnered with J&J., Ionis PharmaceuticalsIt expects an FDA label expansion decision within October for its triglyceride-lowering drug into a much larger patient group., Vera TherapeuticsIt awaits an FDA approval decision by end of October on its kidney disease drug for IgA nephropathy.30%
- Dutch biotechs listed on Nasdaq with make-or-break events in October cover the European leg of the take. · uniQureIt carries the Europe side of the take as a Dutch biotech with an October decision on its Huntington's gene therapy path.9%
- Takeda's ADR offers liquid US access to a Japanese drugmaker with a near-term FDA decision on its sleep drug. · Takeda PharmaceuticalIt trades with enough liquidity on a US exchange to allow a sizeable position, making it the Japan slot for an October narcolepsy drug decision.9%
- Cash15%