Physical AI, Not the Cloud
Chad Wittman@chadwittman
−5.8%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe the next stretch of AI value shows up in the physical world, robots doing real work, not in the already-crowded GPU and data center trade. So this basket skips those names entirely and instead spreads across robot makers, the parts suppliers whose sensors and motion control sit inside every robot regardless of who wins, edge chips that live in the machine itself, and companies actually deploying autonomy in the field. No single name dominates, industrial and deployer stocks act as ballast, and I keep some cash aside to add on dips over a multi-year horizon.
What it owns
- Sensors, vision systems, motion control, and precision components get bought no matter which robot maker wins, a diversified way to own the automation trend. · Teradyne, Inc.Owns collaborative robot arms that work alongside factory labor, earning revenue on the robotics wave without needing to pick a single winner., Cognex CorporationManufactures machine vision systems that nearly every robot needs to see and navigate, a picks-and-shovels play on the broader automation wave., Rockwell AutomationSupplies the control systems and industrial software that factories install when they automate, benefiting from the multi-year rise in factory automation spending., Regal RexnordSupplies the gears, bearings, and motion-control components that robots use to move, growing as robot and automation production volumes climb., Novanta Inc.Manufactures precision components, lasers, and optics inside surgical and industrial robots, a diversified supplier to the entire robotics ecosystem., Allegro MicroSystemsProduces magnetic sensor chips that tell motors their exact position, a critical component in every robot joint regardless of which maker builds the robot., Ouster, Inc.Manufactures lidar sensors that let robots and autonomous machines map and navigate their environment, volume-dependent on field robotics adoption.29%
- Companies building robots that do physical work at scale, where the growth and margin expansion live if the automation wave keeps moving. · Tesla, Inc.Building a general-purpose humanoid robot and bringing it toward paid deployments outside the lab, the biggest single swing at mobile physical AI., Intuitive SurgicalSurgical robots already perform thousands of procedures daily, the longest-running proof that robots do physical work people pay for reliably., Symbotic Inc.Builds complete warehouse automation systems that retailers deploy, turning the physical-AI story into end-to-end deployments replacing human labor., Serve RoboticsDeploys autonomous delivery robots on city streets today, the high-risk, near-term bet on sidewalk-level physical automation scaling rapidly.24%
- Chips that live inside the machine and process data without sending it to the cloud, betting that on-device AI wins over server-farm dependency. · Qualcomm IncorporatedBuilds AI chips that run inside devices and robots themselves, betting that computing power moves to the machine rather than staying in data centers., Ambarella, Inc.Produces chips that process camera data directly on robots, drones, and vehicles at the edge without cloud connectivity, pure edge-brain technology., onsemiSupplies sensing and power chips that industrial machines and vehicles run on at the edge, benefiting as automation and on-device computing spread.14%
- Drones and self-driving farm equipment are robots already earning revenue outdoors, proof that machines can replace labor where it matters most. · Deere & CompanyPutting full autonomy into farm machines that work outdoors without a driver, replacing scarce labor with machines today, not in a prototype., AeroVironmentManufactures drones already earning revenue in defense and commercial work, autonomous machines making real money in the field today., Kratos DefenseBuilds uncrewed jets and autonomous defense systems where customers are spending real budgets now, autonomy already deployed and generating revenue.13%
- Companies replacing labor with robots at scale in warehouses and distribution networks, the real-world proof that the demand for physical automation is here. · GXO LogisticsOperates warehouses for other companies and wins by filling them with robots, proving that automation improves margins and replaces labor profitably at scale., Walmart Inc.The largest buyer of warehouse automation systems, using robots to replace labor and cut distribution costs at unmatched scale and profitability.10%
- Cash10%