The Human Presence Premium
david gabeau@david
+2.1%
since Sep 29
The idea
I believe that as AI fills more of daily life, people will pay a growing premium for spaces defined by other humans actually being there, a new kind of third place. Since no public company sells "AI-free" directly, I own the businesses whose whole product is people in a room: concerts, gyms, bowling, sit-down dinners, cruises, and the real estate hosting them, spread across five layers so no single venue bet carries the idea. I'm treating this as a decade-long shift, not a near-term catalyst, with a cash buffer and position sizing that keeps any one name from dominating.
What it owns
- Concerts, live sports, and iconic venues are experiences that require people to be physically present together. · Live Nation EntertainmentIt is the largest business built on people paying to gather in rooms for concerts and live entertainment, growing if ticket volumes and attendance keep rising., TKO Group HoldingsIt owns live sports events whose entire draw is a crowd watching humans compete in person, holding if gate revenue and media value keep rising., Ryman Hospitality PropertiesIt owns iconic music venues and the hotels around them, gathering places with deep roots, working if occupancy and venue attendance keep rising., Madison Square Garden EntertainmentIt owns one of the world's most famous venues and rooms, thriving if bookings and per-event revenue keep climbing as demand for being there in person grows., Sphere EntertainmentIt operates a new kind of venue people travel to specifically because no screen at home compares, needing attendance and expansion plans to prove the premium for physical spectacle.25%
- Bowling alleys, theme parks, ski mountains, and cruises sell shared in-person time as their core product. · Royal Caribbean GroupIt puts thousands of people in the same floating venue for a week, working if bookings and onboard spending grow as shared travel takes a bigger share of experience spending., AirbnbIt is the marketplace for traveling somewhere physically and booking in-person experiences at scale, working if travel volumes keep growing as people trade screen time for being places., Six Flags EntertainmentIt operates theme parks where crowds spend full days physically together with other people, needing park attendance and per-guest spending to keep rising., Vail ResortsIt owns mountains people travel to and share, an experience that cannot be imitated remotely, holding if season pass sales and visits keep growing., Dave & Buster's EntertainmentIt operates venues where people gather for games, food, and shared nights out, working if same-store visits grow as people spend on shared in-person time., Lucky Strike EntertainmentIt operates bowling alleys as old-school third places that exist only in person, needing league play and group bookings to grow over the decade.25%
- Coffee shops and sit-down restaurants serve as everyday third places where the social habit of showing up in person persists. · StarbucksIt built its brand on being the third place, needing store traffic to grow as people choose to sit somewhere together rather than order from home., Texas RoadhouseIt operates loud, busy, communal dining where people wait in line, proving the take if same-store traffic grows as people pay for the room and not just the food., Darden RestaurantsIt runs sit-down restaurants where the product is a table with other people at it, needing dine-in traffic to stay healthy against delivery and home eating.17%
- These REITs own the real estate where experiences happen, collecting rent from venues as demand for in-person gathering grows. · EPR PropertiesIt owns real estate under theaters, gyms, and attractions, collecting rent from the whole third-place trend rather than betting on one operator., VICI PropertiesIt owns land under casinos and entertainment venues whose entire value depends on people showing up, collecting rent as crowds return.14%
- Gyms and fitness clubs function as third places where people gather partly for community, a habit that remote alternatives cannot replicate. · Planet FitnessIt sells affordable memberships to rooms full of other people exercising, one of the most accessible third places, growing if membership demand holds strong., Life Time Group HoldingsIt operates gyms deliberately designed as social clubs where membership values community as much as fitness, selling the third-place idea at a premium.13%
- Cash7%