Real Ground, Weak Dollar
k@kush
+0.9%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe an expanding deficit keeps pressuring the dollar, and scarce productive assets hold value better than paper claims. Land is the purest expression, it can't be printed and it pays through rent, timber, crops and royalties while you wait, so the core sits in farmland and timber REITs plus land-rich operators and businesses built on that acreage. Around the edges I hold a small bitcoin position as a digital scarcity hedge and a modest slice of other real assets like gold, copper and infrastructure, with cash kept aside to add on weakness.
What it owns
- REITs that own millions of acres of farmland and timberland, the steadiest way to hold productive land that pays rent and harvest income. · WeyerhaeuserThe largest US timberland owner with millions of acres of durable, productive land that pays out from lumber and timber sales, providing steady cash while timberland retains its value., RayonierA timber REIT with nearly all its value in trees and ground, no mills or side businesses diluting the land bet, holding up as scarce timberland stays worth more than paper claims., Gladstone LandIt owns productive farmland and collects rent from farmers operating the land, creating income from an asset that cannot be created or destroyed., Farmland PartnersIt owns row-crop farmland across the US and generates rent income from tenants, benefiting when farmland values rise and a weaker dollar supports agricultural economics.28%
- Companies sitting on huge irreplaceable land holdings that earn royalties or development gains, offering more leverage to rising land values than a REIT. · Texas Pacific LandOwns huge Permian acreage and collects royalties on the oil, water and surface activity that happens on it, earning income from land that doesn't require replacement., St. Joe CompanyHolds a massive Florida land bank and converts it into homes, hotels and towns, combining land appreciation with income from the businesses built on it., LandBridgeOwns Permian surface land and gets paid for water, easements and operating access, earning fees from scarce ground in high demand., Tejon RanchOwns one of the largest contiguous private land holdings in California and is slowly developing it, with value in acres that can't be replicated.26%
- Farmers and growers who own their ground and water, so the business pays its way while the land underneath appreciates. · AdecoagroOwns and farms land in South America, producing sugar, rice and dairy, combining acreage ownership with productive business output., Dole plcGrows fruit on land it owns around the world, a productive business sitting on real acreage that outperforms paper claims in a weakening dollar., LimoneiraOwns citrus acreage and valuable California water rights, two scarce things that can't be printed, with land and water appreciating while the business pays the bills., AlicoOwns Florida agricultural land and is converting it toward higher-value uses, realizing value as land values keep rising.17%
- A small sleeve of gold, copper, pipelines and infrastructure so the debasement hedge isn't riding on land alone. · SPDR Gold SharesHolds physical gold, the oldest hedge against a weakening dollar, rising when deficits grow and currency debases., Freeport-McMoRanOwns some of the world's biggest copper reserves that get more valuable in dollar terms as the dollar weakens and metal demand stays firm., Brookfield InfrastructureOwns utilities, ports and data infrastructure with contracts that mostly adjust for inflation, real assets whose income rises when the dollar buys less., Kinder MorganOwns pipelines that collect tolls on energy moving through them, durable hard assets with fee-based cash flows that hold value against a weaker dollar.15%
- A small Bitcoin position as the non-physical version of the same bet: fixed supply against an expanding dollar. · iShares Bitcoin TrustHolds Bitcoin, the fixed-supply asset that can't be printed and serves as a scarcity hedge when deficits expand and the dollar weakens.5%
- Cash9%