Face Computer Decade
Franco@franco
−7.1%
since Sep 30
The idea
I believe smart glasses become the phone's true successor, but slowly, over a decade rather than one launch. So this basket owns both sides: the few brands with the staying power to survive early flops and lead once it clicks, plus the suppliers of chips, displays, optics, and sensors who get paid regardless of which logo wins. No single company carries the take, large caps anchor it, and a modest cash reserve stays ready to add on weakness. I'll hold through hype cycles and stumbles, and only rethink it if the whole face-computer premise stops advancing.
What it owns
- The companies shipping smart glasses today have the balance sheets to fund the category through its earliest years. · Meta PlatformsIt has shipped more smart glasses than anyone through Ray-Ban and continues funding the category through losses, putting it furthest down the road to mainstream adoption., AppleIt owns the phone that glasses might eventually replace and has the cash and patience to survive early missteps while building toward face computers., AlphabetIt supplies the operating system for every brand's glasses that isn't Apple or Meta, extending its reach into the face-worn device category., SnapIt has committed to cameras as wearable products through Spectacles, serving as the smaller speculative brand in a take built on long-term glasses adoption.24%
- A handful of chip designers and makers supply nearly every pair of glasses made, winning regardless of which brand dominates. · QualcommIts Snapdragon AR chips already sit inside the leading smart glasses on the market, and it gets paid whichever brand ultimately wins., Taiwan SemiconductorNearly every advanced chip in this take gets manufactured there, making it the large-cap ballast that wins as long as chip production keeps advancing., SynapticsIt makes the low-power wireless chips that let glasses stay connected to phones and the internet, already proven in wearables., AmbarellaIts low-power computer vision chips let glasses see and understand without draining a tiny battery, addressing a core design challenge.20%
- Getting a bright, clear image onto a lens remains the hardest unsolved problem, making display and optics makers the real bottleneck in the supply chain. · CorningIt makes the specialty glass and lens materials that every pair of glasses needs, getting paid per unit regardless of brand., CoherentIt makes the lasers and optical components that project images in front-facing glasses displays, so its success depends on this technology becoming standard in the category., LumentumIt manufactures the laser components that enable three-dimensional sensing in face-worn devices, positioning it as a supplier to multiple glasses makers., Himax TechnologiesIt makes the display driver chips for see-through waveguide displays, the leading display type in glasses today., KopinIt builds tiny microdisplays that fit inside frames and relies on military and industrial headsets to survive until consumer glasses volume arrives.20%
- A voice assistant running on a face requires cloud compute and AI models, creating steady infrastructure demand even before glasses reach scale. · NVIDIAA voice assistant on glasses runs on its chips in data centers, providing large-cap ballast that generates steady earnings even before glasses reach consumer scale., MicrosoftIt owns a dominant share of the cloud infrastructure where voice assistants and AI models run for connected devices, anchoring steady AI earnings.11%
- Contract manufacturers win on volume and precision, assembling millions of pairs regardless of which brand's name is on them. · JabilIt assembles optics modules for AR devices and stands to build millions of precise components as glasses volume grows., FlexIt is the large contract manufacturer equipped to build millions of glasses-sized devices regardless of which brand owns them.9%
- Glasses that see, hear, and stay connected need cameras, motion sensors, and radio chips built into every pair. · STMicroelectronicsIt supplies the motion and image sensors that let glasses understand head position and what the wearer sees, earning per unit across all glasses brands., Skyworks SolutionsIt sells the radio chips that keep small devices connected, and glasses will be another radio-filled device category added to the world.8%
- Cash8%