Power Is the Moat: Long Shots
Kiko@kikomarkets
The idea
I believe electricity is the real bottleneck in the AI buildout, and the companies that generate and sell power on long contracts to data centers hold the moat. This basket leans into long shots: on-site power, new reactor builders, nuclear fuel suppliers, and smaller generators already signing data center deals, with just a slice in established nuclear and gas fleet owners already getting paid. No single name dominates, cash is held above normal to buy into drops, and very new listings are skipped until prices settle. I'd rethink this if long-term power contracts stopped getting signed.
What it owns
- Data centers need power now, not years from now, so some are installing their own power plants on site instead of waiting for a grid connection. · Bloom Energy CorporationIt installs fuel cells beside data center servers so operators can get power without waiting for a grid connection to be built., Ormat Technologies, Inc.It operates geothermal plants that generate power around the clock, which is exactly what data centers need and what wind and solar cannot reliably provide., Venture Global, Inc.It is shifting from gas exports to building gas-fired power plants for data centers and has reserved generation equipment to support its capacity goals., Liberty Energy Inc.It is a fracking company building a business selling power to data centers, which creates an asymmetric bet if the power side grows faster than the core business., FuelCell Energy, Inc.It makes fuel cells for data center power and has more room to grow than larger competitors if on-site fuel cells become a standard power solution.24%
- Small reactor developers are pursuing licenses to build reactors and sell power directly to data centers, which represents the largest upside and the largest risk in this take. · Oklo Inc.It plans to build small reactors and sell the power directly, which means it would own the power supply itself if power becomes the competitive advantage., NuScale Power CorporationIt holds the first United States design approval for a small modular reactor, putting it first in line to build new nuclear capacity for data centers., Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.It is developing tiny reactors designed to sit directly next to data centers and is pursuing regulatory approval for a site in the southwest.18%
- Every new reactor and restarted reactor requires uranium and enriched fuel, and United States supply of enriched fuel remains constrained. · Centrus Energy Corp.It is one of the few United States companies that can enrich uranium, which new reactors cannot run without., Cameco CorporationIt is one of the largest uranium producers and also owns a stake in a reactor builder, so it benefits from both new fuel demand and new plant construction., Uranium Energy Corp.It mines uranium in the United States, so growing reactor demand for data center power means growing demand for its product.17%
- Smaller power plant owners are signing data center contracts and have more potential for growth and stock re-rating than the largest producers. · Talen Energy CorporationIt owns a nuclear plant with a data center customer on a long contract, which is the core business model this take is built on., NRG Energy, Inc.It owns gas-fired power plants in Texas and is working to sell power to a large technology buyer directly., Fermi Inc.It is attempting to build a private power grid and data center campus from scratch, which represents the purest version of owning the power supply.17%
- The largest nuclear and gas fleet owners already have data center customers signed to long-term contracts and provide stability to the take. · Vistra Corp.It owns a large fleet of nuclear and gas plants and can sell power to data centers from either source on long-term contracts., Constellation Energy CorporationIt operates the largest United States nuclear fleet and recently signed a long-term power contract with a major technology company.10%
- Cash14%