The Death of Home Cooking
david gabeau@david
+0.8%
since Oct 3
The idea
I think home cooking keeps fading over the next decade as ordering in becomes the default and robots eventually take over the kitchen. This take owns all three layers: delivery platforms that control the customer relationship, restaurants built for delivery rather than dine-in, and the distributors supplying every meal cooked outside a home kitchen, plus a smaller slice in kitchen and delivery robots and the chips behind them. The robot sleeve stays small since that layer is earliest and still mostly private, while delivery and supply chain carry most of the weight.
What it owns
- These apps have become the primary interface between diners and restaurants, capturing customer relationships and extracting a commission from each transaction. · DoorDashIt dominates US food delivery, so growth depends on order volumes and active users rising as home cooking declines., Uber TechnologiesUber Eats extends the global delivery bet, requiring consistent growth in booking volume and delivery's share of total revenue., Maplebear (Instacart)It captures the step before home cooking ends entirely, serving people who buy groceries but refuse to shop themselves., Grab HoldingsIt operates the delivery platform bet in regions where ordering out already dominates daily life, needing growth and profitability.28%
- Machines that cook food and deliver orders represent the next phase after apps, automating the work humans currently do. · NVIDIAIt supplies the chips that power kitchen and delivery robots, making it the foundational technology layer for automation scaling., SymboticIt automates warehouses that move food through the supply chain before reaching any kitchen, proving automation spreads through the system., Serve RoboticsIt deploys robots for the final delivery step, scaling a fleet and partnerships to automate the complete ordered-meal journey., MiddlebyIt builds automated equipment for commercial kitchens, earning revenue as restaurants replace hired labor with machines., TeradyneIt owns Universal Robots, which automates food assembly before full robot kitchens exist, requiring steady growth in robotics.24%
- Restaurant chains designed around takeout and delivery capture meals that once happened in home kitchens. · Domino's PizzaIt operates as a delivery company that makes pizza, thriving in a world where fewer people cook and more order takeout., Chipotle Mexican GrillIt built a restaurant where most orders skip the dining room entirely, matching the model this take predicts will win., WingstopIt designed restaurants around takeout and delivery without dine-in tables, growing fastest as people order instead of cook., Yum BrandsIts brands operate at global scale for meals nobody prepares at home, winning if eating out and ordering in keep growing worldwide., SweetgreenIt combines delivery-heavy restaurant operations with robot kitchens, needing to prove automation improves economics at more locations.21%
- Every meal prepared outside a home kitchen flows through commercial distributors regardless of who cooks it or how it's ordered. · SyscoIt distributes ingredients to commercial kitchens, capturing growth as spending shifts from grocery shopping to restaurant meals., US FoodsIt pipes ingredients to restaurants alongside Sysco, winning the same shift as commercial meals replace home-cooked ones., Performance Food GroupIt distributes to restaurants and convenience stores, growing as foodservice volumes expand with fewer home kitchens in use., Lamb WestonIt supplies frozen potatoes for delivered and takeout meals, exposed to restaurant traffic and requiring demand growth alongside ordering out.19%
- Cash8%