Cooking At Home Comeback
Yaroslav Petrashko@yaro
+0.9%
since Oct 14
The idea
Eating out got too expensive, especially at quick-service spots, so I think people keep cooking at home for years, not just until menu prices cool off. This basket follows that money from restaurant to kitchen: the cheaper big stores people switch to, the delivery and online grocery services that bring food to the door, the store-brand makers taking share from name brands, and the basics people actually cook with like meat, eggs and spices. It's built broad and steady around Walmart and Costco as anchors, spread across many names rather than one bet, with a small cash reserve kept on the side.
What it owns
- When spending shifts from restaurants to home cooking, discount grocers and warehouse clubs capture the largest share of that traffic. · Walmart Inc.It is the largest US grocer gaining share as spending moves from eating out to home cooking, with growing grocery sales as shoppers trade down., Costco Wholesale CorporationIt delivers maximum value to families stocking up for home cooking, benefiting from growing member traffic and food sales when diners shift to cooking., BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.It generates a larger share of revenue from groceries than other warehouse clubs, making it well positioned to capture sales growth from increased home cooking., Dollar General CorporationIt serves budget shoppers who cut back on eating out with affordable groceries at convenient locations, gaining from rising food sales and store traffic., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.It sells closeout and overstock groceries at steep discounts appealing to budget shoppers cooking at home, gaining from rising store traffic and expansion.37%
- Home cooking increases purchases of raw ingredients like chicken, eggs and spices instead of finished meals. · Tyson Foods, Inc.It supplies the chicken and beef that home cooks buy when replacing restaurant meals, with retail sales growing as restaurant orders shrink., McCormick & Company, IncorporatedIts spices and seasonings see higher demand when people cook more meals at home, though success depends on holding volume against store-brand competition., Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.It is the largest US egg producer supplying one of the cheapest proteins for home cooking, benefiting from growing egg sales despite price volatility., Hormel Foods CorporationIt sells bacon, deli meat and pantry staples that home cooks stock when replacing eating out, with growth tied to rising retail volumes., Pilgrim's Pride CorporationIt is a major chicken supplier to grocery stores providing the affordable protein home cooks choose when replacing restaurant meals., Vital Farms, Inc.It sells pasture-raised eggs and butter to shoppers redirecting restaurant spending toward premium groceries, depending on maintaining shelf space and store growth.32%
- Home cooking drives more grocery orders placed online and delivered to shoppers' doors. · Amazon.com, Inc.It captured the largest grocery market share gain through Whole Foods and same-day delivery, where fresh food now dominates its top orders., Maplebear Inc. (Instacart)It provides the delivery option for grocery shoppers cooking at home who want to avoid extra trips, benefiting from growing order volume.15%
- Budget-conscious shoppers trading away from restaurants accelerate their shift to store brands, benefiting the companies that make or distribute them. · Post Holdings, Inc.It manufactures cereal, eggs and store-brand foods that gain shelf space as budget shoppers increasingly replace restaurant spending with private-label groceries., United Natural Foods, Inc.It is the primary distributor for Whole Foods and thousands of independent grocers, so growing home grocery spending flows through its distribution network.11%
- Cash6%