Autonomous War Machine Supercycle
jarborra@rjarborg
The idea
I believe AI and defense are merging into a long autonomous weapons supercycle: drones, robot wingmen, and the software that runs the battlefield. The basket spans three layers, big defense primes retooling for autonomy, the newer drone and software builders, and the chip, sensor, and electronics suppliers every system needs regardless of who wins contracts, plus a small satellite and communications layer. I hold a 10% cash reserve to add when these volatile names sell off, and lean on public rivals and suppliers since the leading private player isn't available to own directly.
What will be bought
- Companies building the drones, robot aircraft and battlefield software at the center of the shift gain the most if adoption accelerates. · Palantir TechnologiesIt sells the AI software militaries use to pull together battlefield data and make decisions, the software layer running autonomous war machines., Kratos Defense & Security SolutionsIt builds cheap jet drones designed to fly as robot wingmen next to crewed fighters, concentrating the supercycle into a single product., AeroVironmentIt makes small drones and loitering munitions that circle targets before striking, products armies are buying in bulk., Red Cat HoldingsIt makes short-range reconnaissance drones for the US Army, offering exposure to soldiers carrying their own autonomous platforms at scale., Ondas HoldingsIt sells autonomous drone systems and counter-drone defenses, providing a small-cap way to own both offense and defense in drone warfare.29%
- The largest defense companies hold Pentagon relationships and are adding drones and autonomy to their programs, which provides stability to the take. · Lockheed MartinAs the largest US defense contractor, it stands to capture a significant portion of autonomous weapons spending flowing through Pentagon budgets., L3Harris TechnologiesIt makes the sensors, radios and battlefield networks that tie drones and robot systems together, ensuring payment across competing drone platforms., Northrop GrummanIt builds uncrewed aircraft and long-range autonomous platforms, the kind of big-ticket systems this supercycle requires., RTX CorporationIt makes missiles and counter-drone defenses, capturing spending on the defensive side as autonomous weapons proliferate in the sky., Elbit SystemsAs an Israeli company whose drones have seen real combat use, it offers one of the clearest public plays on autonomous weapons actually being purchased.28%
- Every autonomous weapon needs processors, cameras and rugged electronics, so these suppliers benefit regardless of which drone maker wins contracts. · NVIDIAIt makes the chips that train AI models and run inference on autonomous drones and robots, likely embedded in weapons that think for themselves., Teledyne TechnologiesIt owns FLIR, whose thermal cameras and small drones enable autonomous systems to see at night and through obscuration., Analog DevicesIt makes the radar and sensor chips that convert the physical world into signals a drone's computer can process, winning regardless of platform choice., Mercury SystemsIt builds rugged processors that run AI and radar on military aircraft and drones in environments where standard computers fail., HEICOIt makes specialized electronic parts used in defense systems and sensors, quiet components that drones and missiles increasingly require.22%
- Drones require satellites and secure networks to navigate and communicate, and that infrastructure layer expands alongside autonomous system growth. · Rocket LabIt launches and builds small satellites for defense purposes, providing the navigation and communications links drones depend on., Iridium CommunicationsIt operates a satellite network providing global coverage, giving drones and soldiers a communications link when ground networks are unavailable or jammed., Planet LabsIt operates a large fleet of imaging satellites photographing earth frequently, feeding the battlefield picture autonomous systems and their software rely on.11%
- Cash10%