Africa's Scarcity Premium
+0.9%
since Oct 6
The idea
I believe that as AI makes intelligence cheap, the things you can't download, young workers, minerals, energy and land, get more valuable, and Africa holds an outsized share of all of them. I've built this as a barbell: miners and energy producers that get paid from resources leaving today, balanced against towers, fintech and e-commerce that win if African economies capture more value at home. It leans on broad ETFs too, so the continent's growth counts beyond individual picks, with no single name dominating and some cash held back.
What it owns
- The resources an artificial intelligence-powered world needs, including gold, platinum and copper, are concentrated in Africa and generate returns even as most value remains on the continent. · Gold FieldsIt mines gold across South Africa, Ghana and other African countries, a physical resource that grows scarcer as computing becomes cheaper., AngloGold AshantiIt extracts gold from mines in Ghana, Tanzania, Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo, offering direct exposure to African mineral production., Global X Copper Miners ETFIt holds global copper miners including those digging in the Democratic Republic of Congo's copper belt, the metal an electrified world needs in growing quantities., Sibanye StillwaterIt controls a large share of the world's platinum group metals, most from South African ground, the kind of scarce physical input artificial intelligence cannot manufacture., Barrick MiningIts mines in Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo are among Africa's largest gold and copper operations, providing direct exposure to the continent's mineral wealth., Harmony GoldIt is among the most South Africa-concentrated gold producers available in New York, offering pure exposure to resources leaving the continent., DRDGoldIt reprocesses old South African mine waste to recover gold, a low-cost way to own the minerals-out-of-the-ground exposure.37%
- Digital infrastructure and payments networks win only if African economies capture value locally, which requires African users and merchants to transact and shop at home. · IHS HoldingIt owns cell towers carrying Africa's internet, primarily in Nigeria, so data flows through these rails if African economies keep value at home., Jumia TechnologiesIt is the pure bet that Africa's young population shops, sells and pays online at home rather than sending that economic value elsewhere., Opera LimitedIts browser and fintech products reach a large African user base getting online on affordable phones, betting that a young, connected population generates rising value., Lesaka TechnologiesIt provides payments and banking technology for merchants and consumers in Southern Africa, the local infrastructure that becomes valuable if the continent retains economic value.20%
- ETFs that spread across African equities and economies capture the continent's ten-year growth story where no single U.S.-listed company exists. · iShares MSCI South Africa ETFIt holds the broad South African market, the continent's deepest equity market, so overall economic growth of the largest African economy counts in the take., VanEck Africa Index ETFIt spreads across African equities as a whole, capturing the ten-plus-year growth story where no U.S. listing reaches into every market.13%
- Companies laying Africa's financial and physical infrastructure allow ownership of the continent's build-out through deep, liquid stocks rather than illiquid direct assets. · MastercardIt is spending heavily to build African payment networks and fintech partnerships, offering deep global exposure to the continent's financial wiring., CaterpillarIt sells the machines that dig African mines and build African infrastructure, so it profits whichever side of the take's barbell succeeds.12%
- Energy powers both the export economy and domestic growth; it is the scarcest input Africa can sell abroad and consume at home. · TotalEnergiesIt is building some of Africa's biggest liquefied natural gas projects in Mozambique and elsewhere, turning African energy into export revenue., Kosmos EnergyIt produces oil and gas off Ghana, Senegal and Mauritania, the energy side of the physical resources the take says grow scarcer and more valuable.9%
- Cash10%