GLP-1 Drugmakers Decade
usman@usygoosy
−2.7%
since Oct 1
The idea
I believe GLP-1 drugs reshape food, retail, and healthcare over the next decade, so I want exposure to the companies making them, not just the trend around them. The core sits in the Lilly and Novo duopoly for ballast, with a wider slice of big pharma challengers racing to compete, a small allocation to clinical-stage biotechs for upside, a broad GLP-1 fund for extra coverage, and cash held back for the trial-result selloffs that are bound to happen along the way.
What it owns
- Large drugmakers with manufacturing scale and capital to capture market share once their own obesity drugs reach patients. · AmgenIts once-monthly shot targets patients who dislike weekly injections, and has the scale to compete if convenience matters as much as efficacy., PfizerIt is buying into obesity drugs rather than building from scratch, a bet that the market grows large enough for multiple winners., AstraZenecaIts oral GLP-1 pipeline targets the pill form that could scale these drugs from millions to tens of millions of patients., Merck & Co.It licensed an oral GLP-1 rather than building one, a faster path into the pill race if the market grows as large as the take assumes., AbbVieIt is advancing an amylin program that could pair with or replace GLP-1s, hedging the take against a single-drug outcome., Regeneron PharmaceuticalsIts combinations are designed to preserve muscle during weight loss, valuable if GLP-1 use becomes long-term and widespread.37%
- These two companies sell nearly all GLP-1 drugs today and have the deepest pipelines for next-generation treatments. · Eli LillyIt owns half the GLP-1 market today and has the deepest pipeline of follow-on drugs to maintain its lead through the decade., Novo NordiskIt made GLP-1s a household name through brand recognition and now must convert that head start into lasting sales as competition arrives.30%
- Small biotechs with obesity drugs still in trials, priced cheaply today with large upside if clinical data succeeds. · Viking TherapeuticsIts dual-agonist drug has shown weight loss matching the duopoly, and small-company scale means success multiplies the stock., Structure TherapeuticsIt is racing to prove an oral GLP-1 pill works as well as injections, and a small company with a winner scales to many times today's price., AltimmuneIts pemvidutide combines weight loss with better muscle preservation and potential liver benefits, a wildcard for a decade-long market., Scholar RockIt makes a drug to stack on top of GLP-1s to preserve muscle, and its value grows if GLP-1 use becomes as widespread and long-term as the take assumes.17%
- A fund holding the entire GLP-1 field, so the take wins if leadership changes or unexpected winners emerge. · Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETFThis fund holds the full GLP-1 landscape, capturing winners the take missed and protecting against individual stock missteps.7%
- Cash8%