−5.2%
since Oct 8
The idea
I think the economy is starting to pay more for discovery than for knowledge, since AI makes knowing things cheap but keeps raising the number of attempts at actual breakthroughs. Rather than guess which lab finds the next drug or material, I own the tools everyone doing discovery depends on: instrument makers, simulation and AI-for-science software, DNA reading and writing, and lab automation, spread across many names so no single company carries the bet. I keep 9% in cash for weakness and plan to hold for years, revisiting the idea only if discovery spending itself slows down.
What it owns
- The take depends on global research and biopharma spending to grow, and these companies collect revenue on nearly every discovery attempt regardless of who succeeds. · Thermo Fisher ScientificIt is the biggest seller of instruments, consumables and services to labs worldwide, so it collects revenue on nearly every discovery attempt., DanaherIt owns a stable of life-science and diagnostics businesses that get paid as biology research and drug production scale up, and keeps adding to the toolkit., Agilent TechnologiesIt supplies the chromatography, spectroscopy and lab gear that chemistry and biology labs run daily, plus the recurring consumables and services., Waters CorporationIt dominates liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry for figuring out what molecules actually are, with high-margin recurring revenue from its installed base., BrukerIt sells the heavy scientific instruments like NMR and advanced microscopy that frontier research cannot do without., Mettler-ToledoIt makes the balances and precision measurement gear that sit in essentially every lab and quality-control line, since every experiment starts with weighing something exactly., RevvityIt sells the reagents, instruments and software that life-science labs and diagnostics providers consume as they work.34%
- Physics-based simulation and design software let researchers test ideas on computers before building them, which is the discovery economy in its purest form. · SchrodingerIt sells physics-based simulation software that lets drug hunters test molecules on a computer before making them, displacing wet-lab trial and error., Cadence Design SystemsIt is half of the chip-design software duopoly and is pushing simulation-first approaches into drug discovery and systems design., SynopsysIt sells the software without which no modern chip gets designed, and chips are where a huge share of new discovery attempts happen., CertaraIt sells biosimulation software that models how drugs behave in the body, letting companies replace some human and animal testing with computation.19%
- These companies provide the tools to read, write and engineer biology at the molecular and cellular level, the raw data and synthesis layer of discovery. · IlluminaIt makes the machines that read DNA, the raw data layer of biological discovery, and gets paid per run on a large installed base., Twist BioscienceIt writes DNA to order on silicon chips, so every attempt to engineer biology can start with cheap synthetic genes., 10x GenomicsIt sells the tools that let researchers study biology one cell at a time, a level of resolution the discovery economy increasingly demands., Ginkgo BioworksIt runs a platform for engineering organisms, getting paid as companies outsource their biology R&D attempts rather than building labs themselves., Pacific BiosciencesIt reads long stretches of DNA accurately, catching what short-read sequencing misses, and gets paid as discovery work pays for that completeness.16%
- These companies make the test, measurement and sensing gear that engineers and scientists use to develop new technology across electronics, communications and materials. · Keysight TechnologiesIt makes the test and measurement gear engineers use to develop new electronics, wireless systems and quantum hardware., Teledyne TechnologiesIt makes the sensors, cameras and instruments that let scientists and engineers measure what they couldn't before, across industries and governments., FortiveIt sells precision instruments and workflow software that industrial and healthcare operations depend on, the applied end of the measurement toolkit.13%
- Automated systems store, move, manage and test the samples and products that discovery work generates, so volume growth drives revenue. · AzentaIt stores, moves and manages the biological samples that discovery work generates, so more experiments means more business., TeradyneIt tests chips before they ship and sells collaborative robots that automate lab and factory work, two ways of getting paid as attempt volume rises.9%
- Cash9%