−4.9%
since Oct 7
The idea
I think a lot more ordinary people worldwide are about to start trading, and with more leverage than before, as AI makes market knowhow cheap and a generation locked out of houses and cheap degrees turns to markets to build wealth. Rather than guess who wins, I own the toll collectors: brokers, exchanges, crypto venues and coins, plus the firms catching this flow in Brazil and across Asia. Spread across many names with a cash buffer, no single bet carries the idea. I'd rethink this if retail trading activity actually stalls out.
What it owns
- Platforms that profit when retail traders increase their use of leverage through options, margin and futures. · Robinhood MarketsIt earns from young traders using options, margin, crypto and futures in a single app, so growth depends on new account funding and rising per-user revenue., Interactive BrokersIt captures serious traders worldwide and profits from margin loans at scale across more countries than rivals, requiring sustained account and margin balance growth., Charles SchwabIt operates at scale with tens of millions of accounts and an expanding trading and derivatives business, requiring rising trading activity per account as the retail wave broadens., eToro GroupIt operates a social trading app for retail investors across Europe and beyond with copy trading that lowers barriers for beginners, requiring growing funded accounts to validate the global retail wave., WebullIt pushes options and leverage to young traders in the US and Asia as an aggressive challenger broker, requiring rapid user growth to outpace operating losses.26%
- Assets and platforms where retail investors trade cryptocurrency, benefiting from wider adoption and higher onchain activity. · Coinbase GlobalIt operates the regulated gateway for US retail into crypto and increasingly offers leveraged products, so it benefits when retail crypto trading volume expands., BitcoinIt is the first asset new retail crypto investors reach for, benefiting directly as millions more people open crypto accounts worldwide., EthereumIt serves as the settlement layer under onchain trading and leverage products, benefiting from rising network activity and fees as retail money moves onto blockchains., Galaxy DigitalIt provides picks-and-shovels infrastructure for crypto venues serving retail traders, including trading, lending and technical support, so it benefits from overall crypto market activity growth., SolanaIt is where the fastest and cheapest onchain trading happens, including memecoin speculation that represents retail leverage in its purest form, requiring sustained trader concentration on the network.23%
- Trading venues that collect fees as volume rises across equities, options and futures contracts favored by retail traders. · CME GroupIt owns the futures contracts and has built micro versions sized for retail traders to access leveraged products, so it needs retail-sized contract volume to keep growing., Cboe Global MarketsIt controls the options market retail traders favor most, especially short-dated SPX and VIX contracts that have become routine for retail, requiring continued options volume expansion., NasdaqIt runs the exchange where retail trades favorite stocks and options and sells data services on top, benefiting from sustained growth in retail-driven equity and options volume., Intercontinental ExchangeIt owns NYSE and sprawling futures and data businesses, collecting fees as overall market activity rises, requiring continued growth in total trading volume across all markets.21%
- Brokers and financial platforms serving retail investors in emerging markets and international regions outside the US. · Futu HoldingsIt brings trading apps to retail investors across Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and other Asian markets, so it depends on growing paying client counts across the region., Nu HoldingsIt serves over one hundred million people across Latin America with banking and investing, converting bank customers into active investors in its core young demographic., Virtu FinancialIt profits mechanically from retail trading volume by providing liquidity against retail orders, so it thrives as long as payment for order flow remains legal and retail volume grows., XP IncIt built Brazil's retail investing market and earns on every trade and advised dollar, depending on deepening participation by Brazilian retail investors over time.20%
- Cash10%